The global rapeseed meal market is experiencing significant shifts in 2025, driven by evolving trade dynamics, changing livestock feed demands, and regional policy interventions. As a crucial byproduct of canola and rapeseed oil production, rapeseed meal serves as a high-protein animal feed, particularly in poultry, cattle, and aquaculture industries. This article explores the current market scenario, highlighting key trends, challenges, and opportunities.
Market Overview
The global rapeseed meal market is projected to reach a valuation of approximately USD 8.6 billion by 2034, with the feed segment accounting for about 75% of the market share in 2024. This growth is primarily attributed to the increasing demand for protein-rich animal feeds, driven by rising meat and dairy consumption worldwide.
Trade Dynamics and Regional Developments
China's Import Challenges
China, the largest importer of rapeseed meal, faces significant supply constraints due to a 100% tariff on Canadian imports, its primary supplier. This policy shift has led to a surge in rapeseed meal futures prices and prompted China to seek alternative sources. In response, China has significantly increased its purchases from India, acquiring 52,000 tons in just three weeks, four times its total imports from India in 2024.
India's Export Potential
India stands to benefit from China's policy changes. With large stockpiles and competitive pricing, India is positioning itself as a key exporter. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) has urged the government to support mustard farmers and boost rapeseed meal exports. However, challenges such as global soybean meal oversupply and domestic competition from maize DDGS and rice bran de-oiled meal pose risks to export growth.
Production and Consumption Trends
In the 2023-24 period, India's rapeseed meal production was forecasted at 6.07 million metric tons, slightly up from the previous year. Domestic consumption was projected to increase by 8.5% to 4.97 million metric tons, indicating a growing internal demand. Globally, the production of rapeseed meal reached a record 43.9 million tons in 2023, with consumption increasing by 13%.
Price Volatility and Market Stability
The imposition of tariffs and subsequent trade shifts have introduced volatility into the rapeseed meal market. China's tightening of trade rules, including increasing trading margin requirements for rapeseed meal futures contracts, aims to stabilize market fluctuations. However, these measures have led to increased prices and potential supply chain disruptions.
Opportunities and Strategic Responses
Export Incentives and Policy Support
To capitalize on the growing demand, especially from China, India is encouraged to enhance its export competitiveness. The SEA has requested the government to provide export incentives such as higher Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) rates, freight subsidies, and interest rate subventions. These measures could help maintain domestic prices above the Minimum Support Price (MSP) and support the crushing industry.
Diversification of Export Markets
India's traditional export markets include South Korea, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam. However, with the current trade shifts, China could emerge as a significant market for Indian rapeseed meal. Expanding into new markets and strengthening existing trade relationships will be crucial for sustained growth.
Conclusion
The rapeseed meal market in 2025 is characterized by dynamic trade shifts, particularly influenced by China's policy changes. While challenges such as price volatility and competition from alternative feed ingredients exist, opportunities abound for countries like India to enhance their export capabilities. Strategic policy support, market diversification, and industry collaboration will be key to navigating the evolving market landscape and ensuring long-term growth in the rapeseed meal sector.
