Coming into the season, the Avalanche were an easy target for the NHL stats community. Despite poor po se sion metrics, the Avsstormed their way Matt Szczur Jersey to the second spot in the Western Conference with 112 points, before being bounced by the Wild in a first-round upset.
Teams that overperform their metrics usually () regre s the following season. Fast forward to 2014-15 and the Avs appear to have done that. With 55 points in 54 games, they are nowhere near last years lofty point pace.
MORE:
Yet, a look at the standings show its not all bad for the Avalanche. They remain out of a playoff spot, but by six points to the Flames as of Feb. 9. Thats difficult, but not impo sible to overcome. Points-wise, they are one behind the analytics-darling Stars,the defending Stanley Cup champion Kings and the team that abruptly ended their 2013-14 campaign, the Wild.
So despite poor po se sion numbers, again, the Avalanche are not far off from grabbing a playoff spot. Regre sion aside, making the postseason would constitute a succe sful campaign.
Of course, the Avalanche are not the only team to have surprising succe s one year followed by some continued good results the following. Last season the Maple Leafs followed up nearly knocking the Bruins out Clay Buchholz Jersey in the first round of the 2012-13 postseason with a solid start.
Heck, on season, the Leafs had 68 points in 59 games, were in the second wild card spot in the East, five points clear of the Blue Jackets. That was despite a Corsi Rob Refsnyder Jersey For of 43.5 () and a Fenwick For of 42.8 (42.4 in close situations) on that date.
The Leafs had danced through raindrops throughout the season. Eventually though, everything came crashing down. Jonathan Bernier got hurt, things stopped going their way in close games and, well, you know the rest of the story.
The Avs' raw numbers are, for the most part, better than the Leafs'. They have a better Fenwick number, and an even Corsi for in all situations and are better in close ones.
However, if you look at Score-Adjusted Corsi and Fenwick numbers, things get a bit bleaker.
Torontos score-adjusted Corsi was 44.0 on Feb. 9 last year and their Fenwick was 43.2. The Avalanche? Their , and Fenwick is 43.3.
Thats not good.
Also keep in mind, this Avs team isnt po se sing the puck as well as last years. Their score adjusted Corsi For was 47.6, and their Fenwick For was 47.2. So its not just the results that are worse this year for the Avalanche the proce s is, too Shelby Miller Jersey .
Now, other factors can come into play. The Avs could improve.Semyon Varlamov has had another good season, so there's a good chancehes better than the Bernier/James Remier combination.. Goalie play cures a whole lot of ills.
And just because a team is likely to regre s does not mean the team will regre s. Sometimes teams can succe sfully stave it off.
On the other hand, Taijuan Walker Jersey everything you could say about the Avs now you could say about the Leafs then even the goalie play. Leafs fans doubted Reimer and thought Bernier was a clear upgrade. He was last year yet in the end, between his injuries and the Leafs' horrific po se sion numbers, it wasnt enough.
And the Avalanche dont just have to keep their play going. They also have to be better than the teams currently in the playoffs, along with the defending champion Kings, the surging Wild (who may have finally solved their goalie me s) and the Stars.
So yes, the Avalanche could Jarrod Dyson Jersey catch those teams in front of them. But those teams all have substantially better po se sion numbers even the Flames, who are a bad po se sion team.
So can the Avs continue to outplay their metrics, and hope that multiple teams underperform? Sure, its po sible.
But is it likely?Ask Maple Leafs fans.
